The Oct. 21 election result shows how fractured the 152-year-old Canadian federation is, and not just because of Alberta’s alienation or Québec’s desire to go it alone.
Third of the popular vote opted for an alternative to the Liberals and the Conservatives.
The unlikely federation of 1867 has become the nearly impossible one.
Canadians are asking how long will this minority government last?
How will Alberta fare with a Liberal cabinet and a Bloc Québecois Official opposition?
What will be the fate of the pipelines and the oil sands in the new Parliament?
Canada’s national survival is an equally pressing issue for the new Parliament as climate change and the deficit.
The answer to the future of Canada lies in whether the majority of Members of Parliament, regardless of party affiliation, want it to survive and whether they will pay the price to keep Canada whole.
The historical experience of Canadian minority governments is that they last for between 175 days and three and a half years.
Internal party knives are out for Andrew Scheer for failing to restore a Conservative government.
Justin Trudeau's leadership is on probation because he did not command a majority of the popular vote.
So the length of the interval until the next election will be determined by the processes to change one or both party leaders.
By comparison, the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh’s support and stature grew throughout the campaign.
In Canada, minority federal governments have become fairly common and can work.
The first minority in Canada, from 1873 to 1874, was an interim government formed after John A. Macdonald resigned because 150 Conservative MPs had accepted bribes to support a transcontinental railway proposal. Liberal Alexander Mackenzie was asked by Governor General Lord Dufferin to form government for nine months until an election could be held.
Canada’s first minority legislated the secret ballot and Mackenzie won a majority in the election of 1874.
Liberal Prime Minister Mackenzie King led a government from 1921 to 1925 that switched back a forth from a minority to majority several times due to many resignations and floor crossings.
Subsequently, Canada had 36 consecutive years of majority Liberal governments.
In the 62 years since the first modern minority in 1957, Canada has been governed for 14 and a half years by nine minorities
Three were led by Liberals Lester Pearson, Pierre Trudeau, and Paul Martin, and three were led by Conservatives John Diefenbaker, Joe Clark, and Stephen Harper.
The longest minority government, led by Prime Minister William Lyon Mackenzie King, lasted for three years and 233 days. The shortest minority, under Prime Minister John Diefenbaker, lasted 177 days.
Prime Minister Lester Pearson never won a majority. Prime Minister Stephen Harper had only one.
However, history will measure Singh, Andrew Scheer, Justin Trudeau and Yves-François Blanchet
by the survival of Canada, for that is paramount in the things that are at stake in the coming months.
– Frank Dabbs is a veteran political and business journalist and author.
