The federal election outcome, Oct. 21, is more important to Alberta’s future than the provincial budget to be tabled in the legislature three days later.
The budget will tell how far to the right and how fast Premier Jason Kenney intends to turn Alberta during his first term in government.
However, a budget is for a year and this federal election is a turning point for Alberta’s 21st century.
Oilsands and pipeline investment and regulation will be more sensibly treated if Andrew Scheer becomes prime minister than if Justin Trudeau wins a second term in office.
That’s just for openers. More important, the election will decide whether the Conservatives will become Canada’s naturally governing party in the 21st century as the Liberals were in the 20th century, when they governed for 70 years. Conservatives have been the government for nine years and the Liberals for 10 in the current century.
If the Conservatives form Canada’s government on Oct. 21, even with a minority of seats in Parliament, Premier Jason Kenney will find it easier to sell a credible austerity budget in Alberta.
A right-leaning budget three days after a federal victory would solidify the making of a new Conservative Canada on a western foundation.
Justin Trudeau would become an unpleasant interregnum between Stephen Harper and Andrew Scheer.
Kenny has been a key member of the Conservative cabal who have plotted and planned an election victory this year since Nov. 4, 2015 when Justin Trudeau replaced Harper as prime minister.
Many of his supporters in Alberta hope that, because he is still a relatively young man, Kenney will develop national leadership ambitions.
If the Liberals win the election, Alberta and Kenney face a confrontation with the federal government over equalization payments.
Kenney has promised an Alberta referendum on the future of equalization, but he has absolutely no control over the program.
Equalization transfers began in 1957 as a Progressive Conservative measure to ensure that all Canadians have comparable government services and taxes by sending federal money to lower-than-average provincial economies.
The Alberta government does not send equalization money to other provinces like Quebec.
To end equalization, it would have to be removed from the Constitution with the consent of the provinces that receive equalization.
In fiscal 2018-19, Quebec received $11.8 billion in equalization payments, Manitoba got $2.03 billion, Nova Scotia $1.9 billion, New Brunswick $1.8 billion, Ontario $963 million and Prince Edward Island $419 million.
Newfoundland and Labrador, British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and the three northern territories received nothing.
Alberta received equalization payments as a “have not” province until 1965, but its share of the total payments in the 61 years since 1957 is less that one per cent.
An equalization referendum would be useful to Kenney only as an anti-Confederation ploy.
Andrew Scheer has made no commitment to amend equalization or abolish it. The most he has hinted at is changing the equalization formula to benefit his Prairie base.
An equalization referendum would be politically useful to Kenney as an anti-Liberal ploy.
But the only way out of equalization is for Alberta to leave Canada.
– Frank Dabbs is a veteran political and business journalist, author, and editor.
